Working Papers (when not listed elsewhere)
Hover over the article title link for abstract, click for downloadable paper in pdf.
2009
- Chi, Guangqing, Arthur Cosby, Paul Gilbert and David Levinson (2009)
Gasoline Prices and Traffic Safety: Age and Gender Variations.
Gasoline prices have significant effects on traffic safety. However, existing literature has failed to adequately investigate the effects: the literature has examined only fatal incidents rather than total traffic incidents. This study analyzes the effects of gasoline prices on total traffic incidents and on the incidents by age and gender. The results suggest that gasoline prices have negative short-term effects on traffic safety: as gasoline prices increase, overall traffic incident rates decrease. Gasoline prices have disproportionate effects in reducing traffic incident rates for young drivers and female drivers, longer-term effects on drivers who are 24 years and older, and no effects on male drivers. This study fills the gap in the literature by contributing to the understanding of gasoline price effects on traffic incidents by examining all traffic incidents instead of only fatal incidents and by examining incidents by age and gender.
JEL code: R41, R48, Q41, R51
Keywords: gasoline prices, traffic incidents, traffic safety, age, gender
(working paper).
- Huang, Arthur and David Levinson (2009)
Modeling phase changes of road networks.
Adopting an agent-based approach, this paper explores the topological evolution of road networks from a microscopic perspective. We assume a decentralized decision-making mechanism where roads are built by self-interested land parcel owners. By building roads, parcel owners hope to increase their parcels’ accessibility and economic value. The simulation model is performed on a grid-like land use layer with a downtown in the center, whose structure is similar to the early form of many Midwestern and Western (US) cities. The topological attributes for the networks are evaluated by multiple centrality measures such as degree centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality. Our findings disclose that the growth of road network experiences an evolutionary process where tree-like structure first emerges around the centered parcel before the network pushes outward to the periphery. In addition, road network topology undergoes obvious phase changes as the economic values of parcels vary. The results demonstrate that even without a centralized authority, road networks have the property of self-organization and evolution; furthermore, the rise-and-fall of places in terms of their economic/social values may considerably impact road network topology.
JEL code: D85, R48, R51, R52, R53, H32, H41
Keywords: road network, land parcel, network evolution, network growth, phase change
(working paper).
- Huang, Arthur and David Levinson (2009)
Why retailers cluster: An agent model of location choice on supply chains.
This paper investigates the emergence of retail clusters on supply chains comprised of suppliers, retailers, and consumers. Agent-based models are employed to study retail location choice in a market of homogeneous goods and a market of complementary goods. On a circle comprised of discrete locales, retailers play a non-cooperative game by choosing locales to maximize profits which are impacted by their distance to consumers and to suppliers. Our findings disclose that in a market of homogeneous products symmetric distributions of retail clusters rise out of competition between individual retailers; average cluster density and cluster size change dynamically as retailers enter the market. In a market of two complementary goods, multiple equilibria of retail distributions are found to be common; a single cluster of retailers has the highest probability to emerge. Overall, our results show that retail clusters emerge from the balance between retailers’ proximity to their customers, their competitors, their complements, and their suppliers.
JEL code: R30, L22
Keywords: retail clusters, agent-based model, location choice, distribution pattern
(working paper).
- Iacono, Michael, David Levinson, and Zhirong (Jerry) Zhao (2009)
Value Capture for Transportation Finance.
As vehicles become more fuel-efficient and overall levels of travel stagnate in response to increases in fuel prices, conventional sources of revenue for transportation finance such as taxes on motor fuels have been put under increasing pressure. One potential replacement as a source of revenue is a set of policies collectively referred to as value capture policies. In contrast to fuel taxes and other instruments that impose charges on users of transportation networks, value capture policies seek to generate revenue by extracting a portion of the gains in the value of land that result from improvements to transportation networks. In this paper we identify a set of eight policies that contain elements of the value capture approach. These policies include land value taxes, tax increment financing, special assessments, transportation utility fees, development impact fees, negotiated exactions, joint development, and air rights. We evaluate each of the policies according to four criteria: efficiency, equity, sustainability (in terms of revenue adequacy and stability), and feasibility. The value capture concept is placed within a more general framework of transportation finance that emphasizes the relationship between different types of charges and groups of beneficiaries from transportation investments.
JEL code: R51, R52, R48, H23, H27, H71, R14, R21, R33
Keywords: Transportation – Economics, Land value, Transportation – finance and taxation
(working paper).
- Junge, Jason and David Levinson (2009)
The Land Value of Local Roads.
Roads cover a significant fraction of the land area in many municipalities. The public provision of roads means this land is exempt from the local property tax. Transferring roads from public to private ownership would not only remove maintenance costs from city budgets, but increase potential property tax revenue as well. This paper calculates the value of the land occupied by roads in sample cities and determines the potential revenue increase if they were subject to property tax. Further calculation computes the extent to which the property tax rate could be reduced if the land value of roads were added to the tax base.
JEL code: R40, R11, R14
Keywords: tax, land value, locational analysis, transportation finance
(working paper).
- Junge, Jason and David Levinson (2009)
Financing transportation with land value taxes: Effects on development intensity.
A significant portion of local transportation funding comes from the property tax. The tax is conventionally assessed on both land and buildings, but transportation increases only the value of the land. A more direct, efficient way to fund transportation projects is to tax land at a higher rate than buildings. The lower tax on buildings would allow owners to retain more of the profits of their investment in construction, and have the expected side effect of increased development intensity. A partial equilibrium simulation is created for three sample cities to determine the magnitude of the intensity increase for both residential and nonresidential development if various levels of split rate property taxes were enacted.
JEL code: R51, R52, R48, H23, H27, H71, R14, R21, R33
Keywords: tax, land value, locational analysis, transportation finance
(working paper).
- Junge, Jason and David Levinson (2009)
Economic and equity effects of transportation utility fees.
Transportation utility fees are a financing mechanism for transportation that treats the network as a utility and bills properties in proportion to their use, rather than their value as with the property tax. This connects the costs of maintaining the infrastructure more directly to the benefits received from mobility and access to the system. The fees are based on trips generated and vary with land use. This paper evaluates the fees as an alternative funding source in terms of economic, equity and administrative effects. The experiences of cities currently using utility fees for transportation are discussed. Calculations are included to determine the fee levels necessary for transportation maintenance budget needs in three sample cities and a county in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Proposed fees for each property type are compared to current property tax contributions toward transportation. The regressive effects of the fees and the effect of adjusting for the length of trips generated are also quantified.
JEL code: H71, L91, R48, R51, R52
Keywords: tax, land value, locational analysis, transportation finance
(working paper).
- Krizek, Kevin and David Levinson (2009)
Access for Performance.
This paper urges that policy decisions be based on important and reliable performance measures. Robust measures that assess the performance of the transportation and land use dimensions of cities, however, are typically missing from such discussions—they typically focus on congestion and mobility. The heart of approach suggested herein lies concept of accessibility: the ability of people to reach the destinations that they need to visit in order to meet their needs. By focusing on accessibility—rather than congestion or mobility—this approach produces a more complete and meaningful picture of metropolitan transport and land use. We place accessibility in a position of prominence as a performance measure by (a) describing the use and measurement of accessibility for metropolitan areas, (b) identifying robust, concrete and practical issues about measurement of the concept, (c) and offering prescriptions for resolving measurement issues.
JEL code: R12, R14, R41, R48, R52, R53, H11
Keywords: Accessibility, Performance Measures, Transportation, Land Use, Measures of Effectiveness.
(working paper).
- Parthasarathi, Pavithra, Hartwig Hochmair, and David Levinson (2009)
The Influence of Network Structure on Travel Distance.
The objective of this research is to identify the role of network architecture in influencing individual travel behavior using travel survey data from two urban areas in Florida: Fort Lauderdale and Miami. Various measures of network structure, compiled from existing sources, are used to quantify roadway networks, capture the arrangement and connectivity of nodes and links in the networks and the temporal and spatial variations that exist among and within networks. The results from the regression models estimated show that network design influences how people travel and make decisions. Results from this analysis can be used to understand how changes in network can be used to bring about desired changes in travel behavior.
JEL code: R41, R42, R48, D85, R14, R52
Keywords: Network structure, travel behavior, transport geography, commuting, circuity
(working paper).
- Scharenbroich, Michael, Michael Iacono, and David Levinson (2009)
How Local Is Travel?
This paper analyzes the distribution of travel time across different classes of roads for 47 subjects in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. We use global positioning system (GPS) and geographic information system (GIS) data to analyze subject road use, with the objective of getting a sense for how much time individuals spend on different types of roads during their commute trip (in a sense, how “localized” their travel is). The results reveal an association between the amounts of time spent on various functional classes of roads and home and work locations. Subjects that live and work in the city of Minneapolis are found to spend a higher percentage of their travel time on lower-level (city and county) roads. The results may be used to further inform local road finance decisions in light of the free-rider problem and other problems associated with current financing mechanisms.
JEL code: R41, R48, R53
Keywords: Travel Behavior; Transportation – Finance; Global Positioning Systems (GPS)
(working paper).
- Tilahun, Nebiyou and David Levinson (2009)
Contacts and Meetings: Location, Duration and Distance Traveled.
The role of contacts on travel behavior has been getting increasing attention. This paper reports on data collected on individual’s social meetings and the choice of in-home/out-of-home meeting locations as well as the distance travelled and duration of out-home-meetings and its relationship to the type of contact met and other attributes of the meeting. Empirically we show that in-home meetings tend to occur most often with close contacts and less often with distant contacts. The purpose, meeting day, and household size suggest that leisure, weekend and large household size people tend to have their meetings either at their home or at their contact’s home. In addition when meetings occur outside of the house, the duration is longer for close contacts and distance to the meeting location is directly influenced by duration and indirectly by the relationship type. Overall the paper illustrates that relationship type along with other meeting specific and demographic variables is important in explaining the location, duration and distance travelled for social meetings.
JEL code: R41, D10, D85, R48
Keywords: Travel behavior, social networks, meetings, network analysis
(working paper).
- Tilahun, Nebiyou and David Levinson (2009)
The Role of Job Search Methods and Contacts on Commuting and Relocation Decisions.
This paper empirically explores the relationship between (i) job finding and commuting outcomes and (ii) the relationship between job search and the commute and location outcomes of relocation decisions after finding employment. The relationship between commute outcomes when finding a new job and the job search method that one employs are explored first. That is followed by an analysis of how long one stays at their residence after finding work, and where they eventually relocate relative to their new employment site as well as their previous residence. Along with the usual socio-demographic variables, the analysis takes on the job search method as well as the local contacts that one has in their residential area as important variables informing these choices. The findings indicate that jobs found through the use of internet and newspapers were on average farther away from the searchers’ residence as compared to those found through contacts and formal means. On relocation after employment, we find that being a renter and moving to a rental unit were important in how quickly one relocated. In addition those that used the internet to find their jobs also relocated faster after controlling for demographic variables such as age. The distribution of ones social contacts were also found to be important in how far away from the previous location a person relocated.
JEL code: J61, J64, R41, R31, D83, L14, D85
Keywords: Job search, travel behavior, transport geography, commuting, relocation
(working paper).
- Zhu, Shanjiang, David Levinson, and Henry Liu (2009)
Measuring Winners and Losers from the new I-35W Mississippi River Bridge.
The opening of the replacement for the I-35W Mississippi River Bridge bridge on September 18th, 2008 provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the impacts generated by this additional link on network performance, and thus empirically test whether a Braess Paradox occurred. Using detailed GPS data to estimate travel times on links and for origin-destination pairs, this research finds that while on average travel time improved with the reopening of the bridge, the subsequent restoration of parts of the rest of the network to their pre-collapse configuration worsened travel times significantly on average. In all cases, the distribution of winners and losers indicates clear spatial patterns associated with these network changes. While no Braess paradox was found in this case, the research provides a method for measuring such phenomena.
JEL code: R41, D81, D83
Keywords: Network structure, travel behavior, transport geography, commuting, network disruption, Braess paradox
(working paper).
- Zhu, Shanjiang, and David Levinson (2009)
People don't use the shortest path.
Most recent route choice models, following either Random Utility Maximization or rule-based paradigm, require explicit enumeration of feasible routes. The quality of model estimation and prediction is sensitive to the appropriateness of consideration set. However, few empirical studies of revealed route characteristics have been reported in the literature. Such study could also help practitioners and researchers evaluate widely applied shortest path assumptions. This study aims at bridging the gap by evaluating morning commute routes followed by residents at the Twin Cities, Minnesota. Accurate GPS and GIS data were employed to reveal routes people utilized. Findings from this study could also provide guidance for future efforts in building better travel demand models.
JEL code: D81, D83, R41, R48, C93, D01
Keywords: Rationality, travel behavior, transport geography, commuting, transportation networks
(working paper).
- Zhu, Shanjiang, Nebiyou Tilahun, David Levinson, and Xiaozheng He (2009)
Planned Versus Unplanned: Travel Impacts and Adjustment Strategies of the Collapse and the Reopening of I-35W Bridge.
Major network disruptions have significant impacts on local travelers. A good understanding of behavioral reactions to such incidents is crucial for traffic management and planning. Existing research on such topics is limited. This study investigates travelers’ reaction to both the collapse and reopening of the I-35W Bridge crossing the Mississippi River at the Twin Cities, Minnesota. A web-based survey conducted at residences in several communities across the metropolitan area supplements the hand-
out/mail-back paper-based survey distributed to workers in areas around the bridge collapse (downtown Minneapolis and the University of Minnesota). findings from the survey highlight differences in travel impacts and behavioral reactions after the bridge collapse and the bridge reopening.
JEL code: R41, R48, D83, C99
Keywords: Network disruption, travel behavior, web-based survey
(working paper).
2008
- Huang, Arthur and David Levinson (2009)
The Effects of Daylight Saving Time on Vehicle Crashes in Minnesota
Daylight saving time (DST), implemented as an energy saving policy, impacts many other aspects of life; one is road safety. Based on vehicle crash data in Minnesota from 2001 to 2007, this paper evaluates long- and short-term effects of DST on daily vehicle crashes. To provide evidence to explain the causes of more/fewer crashes in DST, we examine the impact of DST on crashes in four periods of a day: 3 am-9 am, 9 am-3 pm, 3 pm-9 pm, 9 pm-12 pm. The effects of risk and exposure to traffic are also separated. Our statistical models not only include weather conditions and dummy variables for days in DST as independent variables, but also consider traffic volumes on major roads in different periods of a day. Our major finding is that the short-term effect of DST on crashes on the morning of the first DST is not statistically significant. Moreover, it is interesting to notice that while DST per se is associated with fewer crashes during
dusk, this is in part offset because it is also associated with more traffic on roads (and hence more crashes). Our path analysis shows that overall DST reduces crashes.
JEL-Code: R41, R48, D63
Keywords: daylight saving time, vehicle crashes, exposure, fatal crashes, traffic volume, Minnesota
(working paper).
- Iacono, Michael and David Levinson (2008)
Review of Methods for Estimating the Economic Impact of Transportation Improvements.
Transportation analysts and the public decision-makers they support are confronted with a
broad range of analytical tools for estimating the economic impacts of improvements to trans-
portation networks. Many of the available models operate at different scales and have distinctly
different structures, making them more or less appropriate for analyzing the impacts of differ-
ent types of projects. Here, we review several of the economic methods and models that have
been developed for analyzing the impact of transportation improvements, giving special atten-
tion to types of projects that add highway capacity in urban areas. We review project-based
methods, including benefit-cost analysis and several analytical software tools developed by the
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) for economic analysis of transportation investment.
We then move on to aggregate and disaggregate-level econometric methods, including regional
economic models, hedonic price functions, production functions and cliometric analyses. We
also devote some attention to the role of induced demand in economic evaluation, since it is of-
ten one of the most uncertain and confounding factors faced by those charged with conducting
economic evaluation of transportation projects.
Keywords: Economic Impact, Benefit-Cost Analysis, Literature Review
(working paper).
- Patterson, Tyler and David Levinson (2008)
Lexus Lanes or Corolla Lanes? Spatial Use and Equity Patterns on the I-394 MnPASS Lanes.
A 2004-2006 longitudinal panel survey of I-394 residents found support levels at over 60
percent for the congestion priced High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lane, known to the Twin
Cities as MnPASS. This number varies only slightly when sorted by income levels,
gender, and education levels, suggesting that the arrangement is perceived as equitable.
However, people with higher incomes use the system more often and thereby capitalize
on the direct benefit more often, a finding consistent with other studies. Previous
research has not revealed whether higher incomes actually cause people to use the
MnPASS option more often or whether HOT lanes have simply been built along high
income corridors, such as I-394. This paper aims to separate the effects of income and
location on use to provide a more robust understanding of equity concerns. Using data
provided by the Minnesota Department of Transportation, Heteroskedasticity-Consistent
Method 3 (HC3) regressions, this paper suggests that location and income both explain
HOT lane use.
Keywords: Congestion Pricing, HOT Lanes, High Occupancy Toll lanes, Value Pricing, Equity, Twin Cities (Minnesota), economic evaluation
(working paper).
- Tilahun, Nebiyou and David Levinson (2008)
Home Relocation and the Journey to Work.
Relocation decisions are complex. Each household has a bundle of attributes that make
a location attractive to it, including the ability to access different activity locations easily,
neighborhood quality, house amenities etc. Relocating households have an opportunity to find
housing closer to their work. Using data collected in the Twin Cities area, we investigate how
distance to home and travel time to home change among individuals who have changed their
residence since they started their current job. Comparing the home-to-work distance after the
move to the previous-home-to-work distance, we find that the average home to work distance is
reduced as a result of the move. We also find that the reduction depend on the previous home
to work distance as well as the previous homes’ proximity to downtown Minneapolis. The
findings show that households that are either very close to their work, or very close to down-
town, or both did not significantly increase or decrease their commute after relocation. This
suggests that access to work as well as access to the opportunities that proximity to downtown
offers (to jobs, urban spaces, etc.) are important in the decision making process.
Keywords: Commuting, Location, Journey-to-Work, Tenure
(working paper).
2006
2005
- Levinson, David, Michael Corbett, and Maryam Hashami (2005)
Operating Costs for Trucks.
This study estimates the operating costs for commercial vehicle operators in Minnesota. A
survey of firms that undertake commercial truck road movements was performed. The average
operating cost per kilometer for commercial vehicle operators was calculated from the survey
responses. Results show that the translog and Cobb-Douglas models have approximately equal
explanatory power in estimating the total cost from the data. The models also revealed the
presence of nearly constant returns to scale, a finding consistent with earlier studies; an increase
in output (total truckloads) of 1% increases total costs by 1.04%..
- Levinson, David and Bhanu Yerra
(2005)
How Land Use Shapes the Evolution of Road Networks.
The present research develops an agent-based model to treat the organization,
growth, and contraction of network elements. The components model travel demand,
revenue, cost, and investment. Revenue earned by links in excess of maintenance costs is
invested on the link to until all revenue is consumed. After upgrading (or downgrading)
each link in the network, the time period is incremented and the whole process is repeated
until an equilibrium is reached or it is clear that it cannot be achieved. The model is tested
with three alternative land use patterns: uniform, random, and bell-shaped, to test the
effects of land use on resulting network patterns. It is found that similar, but not identical,
equilibrium hierarchical networks result in all cases, with the bell-shaped network, with a
CBD, having higher level roads concentrated in a belt around the CBD, while the other
networks are less concentrated..
2004
- Nee, Brendan and David Levinson
(2004)
Value of Information for Transit Riders.
Transit information systems are crucial for informing riders of their location,
destination, and arrival time. After reviewing and classifying the various types of transit
information systems, an adaptive stated preference survey was developed and
administered to determine the value of information for transit users. The survey
consisted of two scenarios which included a picture and a written description. In a series
of nine questions, participants were given the choice of a higher fare that included more
transit information or a lower fare with less or no information. The average increase in
fare for improved transit information was $0.83. An OLS model was developed based on
the demographic information from respondents. Females, people between the ages of 20
and 30, and those with higher income were willing to pay the most for improved transit
information. Respondents who were regular transit users and who lived far from where
they worked were willing to pay the least. (working paper).
- Zhang, Lei and David Levinson (2004)
Relationships between ramp metering and sprawl.
This paper explores impacts of ramp metering
on urban land use. A regression-based transportation model is developed
to capture changes in accessibility caused by ramp metering on a highway
network. A Land Use Change Indicator (LUCI) model is modified to estimate
how the spatial distribution of employment and housing would change in
response to the redistributed accessibility in five hypothetical urban
areas with various initial land use patterns. Accessibility will be improved
in almost all areas in a city with ramp metering, but meters affect land
use patterns in various ways depending on initial land use conditions.
Ramp metering can exacerbate decentralization, but not necessarily sprawl.
Keywords: Ramp metering, Land use, Urban sprawl, Decentralization.
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